Bài giảng CFA - Nguyễn Đình Tú
Bài giảng được thực hiện biên soạn trên tinh thần tiếp thu nội dung mới nhất những kiến
thức từ chứng chỉ tài chính quốc tế CFA và kế thừa phát huy những điểm mạnh trong bài
giảng của những trường đại học danh tiếng đồng thời dựa trên những kinh nghiệm thực tế
giảng dạy của tác giả. Bài giảng đã hệ thống những nội dung theo đề cương chi tiết đã được
Học viện ban hành: Corporate Finance, Market Organization, Equity Analysis and Valuation,
Portfolio Management
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BỘ THÔNG TIN VÀ TRUYỀN THÔNG HỌC VIỆN CÔNG NGHỆ BƯU CHÍNH VIỄN THÔNG ***** BÀI GIẢNG MÔN CFA Mã môn học: FIA 1402 (03 tín chỉ) Biên soạn ThS. Nguyễn Đình Tú Hà Nội – 2015 PT IT MỤC LỤC Lời mở đầu ........................................................................................................................................ 3 1. Chủ đề 1: Corporate Finance ........................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Capital Budgeting .................................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Cost of Capital .......................................................................................................................13 1.3 Measures of leverage .............................................................................................................24 1.4 Dividends and Share Repurchases ........................................................................................24 1.5 Working capital management ................................................................................................33 1.6 Corporate Governance ...........................................................................................................33 2 Chủ đề 2: Market Organization .....................................................................................................36 2.1 Market organization and structure .........................................................................................36 2.2 Security market indices .........................................................................................................56 2.3 Market efficiency ..................................................................................................................63 3 Chủ đề 3: Equity Analysis and Valuation .....................................................................................68 3.1 Overview of equity securities ................................................................................................68 3.2 Introduction to industry and company analysis .....................................................................75 3.3 Equity valuation: concepts and basic tools............................................................................85 4 Chủ đề 4: Portfolio Management ................................................................................................108 4.1 Portfolio management overview .........................................................................................108 4.2 Portfolio risk and return ......................................................................................................114 4.3 Portfolio planning and construction ....................................................................................152 PT IT LỜI NÓI ĐẦU Hiện nay trong chương trình đào tạo ngành Kế toán của Học viện Công nghệ Bưu chính Viễn thông ngoài những môn học hướng tới ngành đào tạo còn có những môn học sử dụng tài liệu tiếng Anh chuyên ngành như “CFA”, “Introduction to ACCA”. Những môn học này ngoài việc bổ sung kiến thức tiếng Anh chyên ngành còn cung cấp kiến thức tài chính kế toán theo hướng cập nhật các chuẩn mực quốc tế. Tuy nhiên với vốn tiếng Anh còn hạn chế của sinh viên Học viện, đã tạo ra không ít khó khăn trong công tác giảng dạy và học tập các môn học này. Nhận thấy vấn đề như trên, kết hợp với chủ trương của Học viện thực hiện biên soạn bài giảng, giáo trình, slide cho các môn học nhằm đồng bộ hóa tài liệu, tác giả đã thực hiện biên soạn bài giảng “CFA” dành riêng cho giảng viên và sinh viên ngành kế toán của Học viện. Bài giảng được thực hiện biên soạn trên tinh thần tiếp thu nội dung mới nhất những kiến thức từ chứng chỉ tài chính quốc tế CFA và kế thừa phát huy những điểm mạnh trong bài giảng của những trường đại học danh tiếng đồng thời dựa trên những kinh nghiệm thực tế giảng dạy của tác giả. Bài giảng đã hệ thống những nội dung theo đề cương chi tiết đã được Học viện ban hành: Corporate Finance, Market Organization, Equity Analysis and Valuation, Portfolio Management Để bài giảng thực sự trở thành tài liệu hữu ích phục vụ cho hoạt động giảng dạy và học tập, tác giả mong muốn nhận được những góp ý với tinh thần xây dựng, chia sẻ chân thành từ phía độc giả. Xin chân thành cảm ơn! Hà Nội 06/2015 CHỦ BIÊN NGUYỄN ĐÌNH TÚ PT IT Chủ đề 1: Corporate Finance. 4 1. Chủ đề 1: Corporate Finance 1.1 Capital Budgeting Thecapital budgetingprocess istheprocessofidentifying andevaluating capitalprojects, thatis,projectswherethecashflowtothefirmwillbereceivedoveraperiod longerthan ayear.Anycorporate decisionswith animpact onfuture earningscanbe examined usingthisframework. Decisions about whether tobuyanewmachine, expand businessinanother geographic area,movethecorporate headquarters toCleveland,orreplaceadeliverytruck, tonameafew,canbeexamined usingacapitalbudgetinganalysis. Foranumberofgoodreasons,capitalbudgeting m a ybethemostimportant responsibility t h a t afinancialmanagerhas.First,becauseacapitalbudgeting decis ionoften involvesthepurchase ofcostlylong-term asse t swithlivesofmanyyears,the decisionsmademaydetermine thefuture successofthefirm.Second,theprinciples underlying t h e capitalbudgeting processalsoapplytoother corporatedecisions, such Asworking capitalmanagement a n d making strategicmergersandacquisitions. Finally, making goodcapitalbudgeting d ec i s i on s isconsistent withmanagement’s primary goalofmaximizing shareholdervalue. The capitalbudgetingprocesshasfour administrativesteps: Step1: Ideageneration.The mostimportantstepinthecapital budgetingprocess Isgeneratinggoodproject ideas .Ideascancomefrom anumberofsources includingsenior management,functionaldivisions, employees , orsources outside thecompany. Step2: Analyzingprojectproposals.Becausethedecision toacceptorrejectacapital project isbasedontheproject’s expectedfuture cashflows,acashflowforecast must bemadeforeachproducttodetermine i t s expectedprofitability. Step3: Createthefirm-widecapitalbudget.Firmsmust prioritizeprofitableprojects according tothetiming oftheproject’s cashflows,availablecompany resources, andthecompany’s overallstrategic plan. Many projectsthatareattractive ind iv idua l l ymaynotmakesensestrategically. Step4: Monitoring decis ionsandconductingapost-audit. Itisimportanttofollowuponallcapital budgetingdecisions. Ananalyst should compare theactual resultstotheprojectedresults, andproject managers should explain why projectionsdidordid notmatch actual performance. Becausethecapital budgetingprocess isonly asgood astheestimates ofthe inputs into themodel usedtoforecast cashflows,apost- PT IT Chủ đề 1: Corporate Finance. 5 auditshould beusedtoidentifysystematic errorsintheforecasting processandimprove companyoperations. Categories ofCapital Budgeting Projects Capital budgetingprojects maybedivided intothefollowing categories: Replacementprojectstomaintain t h e businessarenormallymadewithout detailedanalysis.The onlyissuesarewhethertheexisting operationsshould continueand, ifso,whetherexisting procedureso r processesshould bemaintained. Replacementprojectsfor costreductiondeterminewhetherequipmentthat is obsolete, butstillusable, shouldbereplaced. Afairlydetailed analysis isnecessary inthiscase. Expansionprojectsaretaken onto growthebusiness andinvolveacomplexdecision-making processbecause theyrequire anexplicit forecastoffuture demand.Averydetailed analysisisrequired. Newproduct ormarketdevelopmentalsoentails acomplex decision-makingprocessthat willrequire adetailed analysisdueto thelargeamount o f uncertainty involved. Mandatoryprojectsmayberequired byagovernmental agencyorinsurance company andtypically involvesafety-related o r environmentalconcerns.These projects typicallygeneratelittletonorevenue, buttheyaccompany n e w revenue producingprojects undertakenbythecompany. Otherprojects.Someprojects arenot easilyanalyzed throughthecapital budgetingprocess. Suchprojects mayinclude apetproject ofsenior management(e.g., corporateperks) orahigh- riskendeavor that isdifficulttoanalyzewith typical capital budgetingassessment methods(e.g.,research anddevelopmentprojects). The capitalbudgetingprocessinvolvesfivekeyprinciples: 1. Decisionsarebasedoncash flows, notaccountingincome.Therelevant cashflowsto consider aspartofthecapital budgetingprocessareincrementalcashflows,the changesincashflowsthatwilloccuriftheproject isundertaken. Sunk costs arecoststhat cannotbe avoided, eveniftheproject isnot undertaken. Becausethesecostsarenotaffected bytheaccept/rejectdecision, t he yshould notbeincludedintheanalysis.Anexample ofasunk costisaconsultingfeepaid toa marketingresearch firmtoestimate demandforanewproductprior toadecision ontheproject. Externalitiesaretheeffectstheacceptance o f aproject mayhaveonother firm cashflows.The primaryoneisanegative externality calledcannibalization, whichoccurswhen anewproject PT IT Chủ đề 1: Corporate Finance. 6 takessalesfrom anexisting product.When cons ider ingexternalities,thefullimplicationofthe newproject ( lossinsalesofexisting products)should betaken intoaccount. Anexample ofcannibalizationiswhen asoftdrink companyin t roducesadietversion ofanexistingbeverage.The analystshould subtractthelostsalesoftheexisting beveragefrom theexpected newsales ofthedietversion whenestimatedincrementalproject cashflows.Apositive externalityexistswhen doingtheproject wouldhaveapositive effectonsalesofa firm'sother productlines. Aproject hasaconventionalcashflowpattern ifthesignonthecashflows changes onlyonce,with oneormore cashoutflows followedbyoneormore cashinflows. Anunconventionalcashflowpattern hasmore thanonesignchange. Forexample, aproject mighthaveaninitial investmentoutflow, aseriesofcash inflows, andacashoutflow forassetretirementcostsattheendoftheproject's life. 2. Cash flowsarebasedonopportunity costs.Opportunity costsarecashflowsthat afirmwilllosebyundertakingtheproject underanalysis.These arecashflowsgenerated byanassetthefirmalreadyownsthatwould beforgone iftheproject underconsiderationisundertaken.Opportunitycostsshould beincludedinproject costs.Forexample,whenbuildingaplant, evenifthefirmalreadyownstheland, Thecostofthelandshould bechargedtotheproject becauseitcouldbesoldifnot used. 3. Thetiming ofcash flowsisimportant. Capital budgetingdecisions accountforthe timevalueofmoney,which meansthat cashflowsreceivedearlierareworth morethan cashflowstobereceivedlater. 4. Cash flowsareanalyzedonanafter-tax basis.Theimpact oftaxesmust beconsidered whenanalyzing allcapital budgetingprojects. Firmvalueisbasedoncashflowsthey gettokeep,notthosetheysendtothegovernment. 5. Financingcostsarereflectedintheproject'srequiredrateofreturn.Donotconsider financing costsspecifictotheproject whenestimatingincrementalcashflows.The discountrateusedinthecapital budgetinganalysistakesaccountofthefirm'scostofcapital. Onlyprojects thatareexpected toreturn morethan thecostofthecapital needed tofund themwillincreasethevalueofthe firm. Independentvs.MutuallyExclusiveProjects Independent projectsareprojects thatareunrelatedtoeachother andallowforeach project tobeevaluated basedonitsownprofitability.Forexample, ifprojects AandBareindependent,andboth projectsareprofitable, then thefirmcould acceptboth projects. Mutuallyexclusive means that onlyoneproject inasetofpossible projects PT IT Chủ đề 1: Corporate Finance. 7 canbeaccepted andthat theprojects compete with eachother. Ifprojects AandB weremutuallyexclusive,thefirmcould accepteither ProjectAorProject B,but notboth.Acapital budgetingdecision between twodifferentstampingmachines with different costsandoutput would beanexample ofchoosing between twomutually exclusiveprojects. Project Sequencing Someprojectsmust beundertakeninacertain order,orsequence, sothat investing in aproject today createstheopportunitytoinvest inother projects inthefuture. For example, if a project undertakentoday is profitable, that maycreate the opportunity to invest in a second project a year from now. However, if the project undertakentoday turns out to be unprofitable, the firm willnot investinthesecond project. UnlimitedFunds vs.Capital R a t i o n i n g Ifafirmhasunlimitedaccesstocapital, thefirmcanundertakeallprojects withexpected returnsthatexceedthecostofcapital. Many firmshaveconstraintsonthe amount o f capital theycanraiseandmust usecapitalrationing. Ifafirm'sprofitable project opportunitiesexceedtheamount offundsavailable, thefirmmust ration, or prioritize,itscapital expenditureswith thegoalofachieving themaximum increase in valueforshareholders givenitsavailable capital. Net PresentValue(NPV) Wefirstexamined thecalculation ofnetpresent value(NPV) inQuantitative Methods. The NPVisthesumofthepresent valuesofalltheexpected incrementalcashflowsifaproject isundertaken.The discountrateusedisthefirm'scostofcapital, adjustedfo r theriskleveloftheproject. Foranormal project, with aninitial cashoutflow followed byaseriesofexpected after-tax cashinflows, theNPV isthe present valueoftheexpected inflows minus the initial costoftheproject. where: CF0=initial investmentoutlay (anegative cashflow) CFt=after-tax cash flowattime t k =required ra t eofreturn forproject PT IT Chủ đề 1: Corporate Finance. 8 Apositive NPV project isexpected toincrease shareholder wealth, anegative NPV project isexpected todecreaseshareholder wealth, and azeroNPV project hasno expected effectonshareholder wealth. Forindependent projects, theNPV decisionruleissimply toaccept anyproject with a positive NPV andtorejectanyproject with anegative NPV. Example: NPV analysis Using the project cash flows presented Table 1, compute the NPV of each project’s cash flows and determine for each project whether it should be accepted or rejected. Assume that the cost of capital is 10%. Table 1: Expected Net after - Tax Cash Flows Year (t) Project A Project B 0 -$2,000 -$2,000 1 1,000 200 2 800 600 3 600 800 4 200 1,200 Answer: Both Project A and Project B have positive NPVs, so both should be accepted. InternalRateofReturn ( IRR) Foranormal project,theinternalrate ofreturn (IRR) isthediscount ratethat makes thepresent valueoftheexpected incremental after-tax cashinflowsjust equaltothe initial costoftheproject. Moregenerally, theIRRisthediscount ratethat makes thepresent valuesofaproject'sestimated cashinflowsequaltothepresent valueofthe project's estimated cashoutflows.That is ,IRRisthediscount r a t e that makesthe following relationshiphold: PV(inflows) =PV(outflows) The IRRisalsothediscount r a t e forwhich theNPV ofaproject isequaltozero: PT IT Chủ đề 1: Corporate Finance. 9 TocalculatetheIRR,youmayusethetr ... (a) Capital Market Line E(R) CML Rf M E(RM) PM w/margin A E C D E(R) SML Rf B E(RM) PT IT Chủ đề 4: Portfolio Management 146 return on the market, and the expected returns at Point A and Care greater and less than the expected return on the market (tangency) portfolio, respectively. Note that a low-beta stock, such as represented by Point C, is not necessarily low-risk when total risk is considered. While its contribution to the risk of a well-diversified portfolio may be low, its risk when held by itself can be considered quite high. A firm whose only activity is developing a new, but as yet unproven, drug may be quite speculative with highly uncertain returns. It may also have quite low systematic risk if the uncertainty about itsfuture returns depends primarily on firm-specific factors. All stocks and portfolios that plot along the line labeled β = 1 in Figure 9 have the same expected return as the market portfolio and, thus, according to the CAPM, have the same systematic risk as the market portfolio (i.e., they all have betas of one). All points on the CML (except the tangency point) represent the risk-return characteristics of portfolios formed by either combining the market portfolio with the risk- freeassetorborrowing attherisk-freerateinordertoinvestmorethan 100%of theportfolio's netvalueintheriskymarket portfolio (investing onmargin). Point DinFigure8represents aportfolio that combines themarket portfolio with therisk-free asset,whilepoints abovethepoint oftangency,suchasPointE,represent portfolios createdbyborrowing attherisk- freeratetoinvestinthemarket portfolio.Portfolios that donotlieontheCMLarenotefficientandtherefore haveriskthatwillnotbe rewardedwithhigher expectedreturns inequilibrium. According totheCAPM, allsecuritiesandportfolios, d iv e r s i f i ed ornot,willplotontheSMLin equilibrium. In fact, all stocks and portfolios along the line labeled β = 1 in Figure9,including themarket portfolio,willplotatthesamepoint ontheSML.They willplotatthepoint ontheSMLwith betaequaltooneandexpectedreturn equalto theexpected returnonthemarket, regardless of their totalrisk. The CAPMisoneofthemostfundamental concepts ininvestment theor y.The CAPMisanequilibrium m o d e l thatpredicts theexpected returnonastock,giventheexpected return onthemarket, thestock'sbetacoefficient, andtherisk-freerate. BecausetheSMLshowstheequilibrium (required) returnforanysecurityorportfolio basedonitsbeta (systematicrisk),analystsoftencompare theirforecastofasecurity's return toitsrequired returnbasedonitsbetarisk.Thefollowingexampleillustrates this technique. PT IT Chủ đề 4: Portfolio Management 147 Example: Identifying mispriced securities The following figure contains information based on analyst’s forecasts for three stocks. Assume a risk-free rate of 7% and a market return of 15%. Compute the expected and required return on each stock, determine whether each stock is undervalued, overvalued, or properly valued, and outline an appropriate trading strategy. Forecast Data Stock Price Today E(Price) in 1 Year E(Dividend) in 1 Year Beta A $25 $27 $1.00 1.0 B 40 45 2.00 0.8 C 15 17 0.50 1.2 Answer: Expected and required returns computations are shown in the following figure. Forecasts vs. Required Returns Stock Forecast Return Required Return A B C • Stock A is overvalued. It is expected to earn 12%, but based on its systematic risk, it should earn 15%. It plots below the SML. PT IT Chủ đề 4: Portfolio Management 148 • Stock B is undervalued. It is expected to earn 17.5%, but based on its systematic risk, it should earn 13.4%. It plots above the SML. • Stock C is properly valued. It is expected to earn 16.6%, and based on its systematic risk, it should earn 16.6%. It plots on the SML. The appropriate trading strategy is: • Short sell Stock A. • Buy Stock B. • Buy, sell, or ignore Stock C. We can do this same analysis graphically. The expected return/beta combinations of all three stocks are graphed in the following figure relative to the SML. Identifying Mispriced Securities Remember, allstocks should plot on the SML; anystock not plotting on the SML is mispriced. Notice that Stock A falls below the SML, Stock B lies above the SML, and Stock C is on the SML. If you plot a stock’s expectedreturn and it falls below the SML, the stock is overpriced. That is, the stock's expected return is too low given itssystematic risk. If a stock plots above the SML, it is underpriced and is offering an expected return greater than required for its systematic risk. If it plots on the SML, the stock is properly priced. A C B E (R) 7 Beta risk SML 0.8 1 1.2 PT IT Chủ đề 4: Portfolio Management 149 Because the equation of the SML is thecapital assetpricing model, you can determine if a stock is over- or underpriced graphically or mathematically. Your answers willalways be the same. When we evaluate the performance of a portfolio with risk that differs from that of a benchmark, we need to adjust the portfolio returns for the risk of the portfolio. There are several measures of risk-adjusted returns that are used to evaluate relative portfolio One such measure is the Sharpe ratio The Sharpe ratio of a portfolio is its excess returns per unit of total portfolio risk, and higher Sharpe ratios indicate better risk-adjusted portfolio performance. Note that this is a slope measure and, as illustrated in Figure 9, the Sharpe ratios of all portfolios along the CML are the same. Because the Sharpe ratio uses total risk, rather than systematic risk, it accounts for any unsystematic risk that the portfolio manager has taken. Note that the value of the Sharpe ratiois only useful for comparison with the Sharpe ratio of another portfolio. In Figure 10, we illustrate that the Sharpe ratio is the slope of the CAL for the portfolio and can be compared to the slope of the CML, which is the Sharpe ratio for any portfolio along the CML. Figure 10: Sharpe Ratios as Slopes E (R) Rf RPI RM RP2 P1 P2 PT IT Chủ đề 4: Portfolio Management 150 ~--~ The M-squared (M2) measure produces the same portfolio rankings as the Sharpe ratiobut is stated in percentage terms. It is calculated as The intuition of this measure is that the first term is the excess return on a Portfolio P*, constructed by taking a leveraged position in Portfolio P so that P* has the same total risk, M, as the market portfolio. As shown in Figure 11, the excess return on such a leveraged portfolio is greater than the return on the market portfolio by the vertical distance M2. Figure 11: M-squared for a Portfolio Two measures of risk-adjusted returns based on systematic risk (beta) rather than totalrisk are theTreynor measure and Jensen's alpha. They are similar to the Sharpe ratio and M2 in that the Treynor measure is based on slope and Jensen's alpha is a measure of percentage returns in excess of those from a portfolio that has the same beta but lies on the SML. The Treynor measure is calculated as , interpreted as excess returns per unit of systematic risk, and represented by the slope of a line as illustrated in Figure 12. Jensen's alpha for Portfolio Pi calculated as = R - [Rf + βp(RM - Rf)] and is the percentage portfolio return above that of a portfolio (or security) with the same beta as the portfolio that lies on the SML, as illustrated in Figure 12. E (R) Rf RP RM P M P * PT IT Chủ đề 4: Portfolio Management 151 Figure 12: Treynor Measure and Jensen’s Alpha Whether risk adjustment should be based on total risk or systematic risk depends on whether a fund bears the nonsystematic risk of a manager's portfolio. If a single manager is used, then the total risk (including any nonsystematic risk) is the relevant measure and risk adjustment using total risk, as with the Sharpe and M2 measures, is appropriate. If a fund usesmultiple managers so that the overall fund portfolio is well diversified (has no nonsystematic risk), then performance measures based on systematic (beta) risk, such as the Treynor measure and Jensen's alpha, are appropriate. These measures of risk-adjusted returns areoften used to compare theperformance of actively managed funds to passively managed funds. Note in Figures 10 and 11 that portfolios that lie above the CML have Sharpe ratios greater than those of any portfolios along the CML and have positive M2 measures. Similarly, in Figure 12, we can see that portfolios that lie above the SML have Treynor measures greater than those of any security or portfolio that lies along the SML and also have positive values for Jensen's alpha. One final note of caution isthat estimating the values needed to apply these theoretical models and performance measures is often difficult and is done with error. The expected return on the market, and thus the market risk premium, may not be equal to its average historical value. Estimating security and portfolio betas is done with error as well. Jensen’s alpha E (R) Rf RP RM P 1 M SML Slope = Treynor measure for Portfolio P PT IT Chủ đề 4: Portfolio Management 152 4.3 Portfolio planning and construction Aninvestment manager isveryunlikelytoproduce agoodresultforaclientwithout understandingthat client’sneeds,circumstances, andconstraints. Awritten investmentpolicy statementwilltypicallybeginwith theinvestor'sgoalsintermsofriskandreturn. These should bedetermined j o i n t l y , asthegoalsofhighreturnsandlowrisk(whilequitepopular) arelikelytobemutually exclusiveinpractice. Investorexpectations intermsofreturns mustbecompatible wi th investor'stolerance forrisk(uncertaintyabout portfolioperformance). Themajorcomponents ofanIPStypicallyaddressthefollowing: DescriptionofClientcircumstances, s i t ua t ion , a n d investment object ives . Statementof thePurposeoftheIPS. StatementofDutiesandResponsibilitiesofinvestment manager, custodianofassets, andtheclient. Procedures toupdate IPSandtorespond tovariouspossiblesituations. Investment Objectivesderivedfromcommunicationswith theclient. Investment Constraintsthat mustbeconsidered intheplan. Investment Guidelinessuchashowthepolicywillbeexecuted, assettypespermitted, andleveragetobeused. Evaluationof Performance,thebenchmark p o r t fo l i o forevaluating investmentperformance, a n d other informationonevaluation ofinvestment r e s u l t s . Appendicescontaininginformationonstrategic (baseline)assetallocation andpermitteddeviations frompolicyportfolio al locations , aswellashowandwhenthe portfolio al locationsshouldberebalanced. Inanycase,theIPSwill,ataminimum,contain aclearstatement o f client circumstances andconstraints, a n investment strategybasedonthese,andsome benchmark a g a i n s t whichtoevaluatetheaccount performance. Theriskobjectives inanIPSmaytakeseveralforms.Anabsolute r iskobjective mightbeto"havenodecreaseinportfolio valueduring any12-month p e r i o d ” orto"not decreaseinvaluebymorethan2%atanypoint overany12-month p e r i o d ." Low absolutepercentage riskobjectivessuchasthesemayresultinportfolios madeupof securitiesthat offerguaranteed re turns (e.g., U.S.Treasurybills). PT IT Chủ đề 4: Portfolio Management 153 Absolute riskobjectivescanalsobestated intermsoftheprobability o f specificportfolio results,percentage lossesordollarlosses,rather thanstrictlimitsonportfolio results.Examplesareasfollows: "Nogreaterthan a5%probability o f returns below-5% i n any12-month p e r i o d ." "Nogreaterthan a4%probability o f alossofmorethan $20,000 overany12-month p e r i o d ." Anabsolute returnobjectivemaybestatedinnominal terms, suchas"anoverallreturn ofatleast6%perannum,"orinrealreturns, suchas"areturn of3%morethan theannual inflationrateeachyear." Relativeriskobjectives relatetoaspecificbenchmark andcanalsobestrict, suchas, "Returns willnotbeless than 12-montheuroLIBOR overany12-monthperiod," or statedintermsofprobability, suchas,"Nogreaterthan a5%probability ofreturns morethan4%belowthereturn ontheMSCIWorld Indexoverany12-month period." Return objectivescanberelativetoabenchmark p o r t fo l io re tu rn , suchas,"Exceedthereturn ontheS&P500Indexby2%perannum."Forabank,thereturn objectivemayberelativetothebank'scostoffunds (deposit rate).While itispossibleforan institutiontousereturns onpeerportfolios, suchasanendowment w i t h astated objectivetobeinthetopquartile ofendowment f u n d returns, peerperformance benchmarks suffer fromnotbeinginvestableportfolios. There is no way to match thisinvestment return byportfolio construction before the fact. Inanyevent,theaccount managermust makesurethat thestatedriskandreturn objectivesarecompatible, g i v e n therealityofexpectedinvestment r e s u l t s and uncertainty overtime. Aninvestor'sability tobearriskdepends onfinancialcircumstances. Longerinvestment horizons (20yearsrather than 2years),greaterassetsversusliabilities (morewealth), moreinsurance againstunexpected occurrences, andasecurejoballsuggestagreater abilitytobearinvestment riskintermsofuncertaintyabout periodic investment performance. Aninvestor'swillingness t o bearriskisbasedprimarily ontheinvestor'sattitudes andbeliefsabout investments( variousassettypes).Theassessmentofaninvestor'sattitude about riskisquitesubjectiveandissometimes donewith ashort questionnairet h a t attempts t o categorizetheinvestor'sriskaversionorrisktolerance. PT IT Chủ đề 4: Portfolio Management 154 When theadviser'sassessmentsofaninvestor'sabilityandwillingness totakeinvestment riskarecompatible, t h e r e isnorealproblem selectinganappropriate l e v e l ofinvestment risk.Iftheinvestor'swillingness totakeoninvestment r i s k ishighbuttheinvestor's abilitytotakeonriskislow,thelowabilitytotakeoninvestment r i skwillprevailinthe adviser'sassessment. In situations where ability is high but willingness is low, the adviser may attempt to educate the investor about investment risk and correct any misconceptions that may be contributing to the investor's low stated willingness to take on investment risk. However, the adviser's job is not to change theinvestor'spersonality characteristics thatcontributetoalowwillingness totakeoninvestment r i sk .The approach willmostlikelybeto conform totheloweroftheinvestor'sabilityorwillingness tobearrisk,asconstructingaportfolio withalevelofriskthat theclientisclearlyuncomfortable withwillnotlikelyleadtoagoodoutcome intheinvestor'sview investmentconstraintsinclude theinvestor'sliquidity needs,timehorizon, tax considerations,legalandregulatory constraints, a n d unique needsandpreferences. TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO 1. Schweser Notes CFA Level 1, Kaplan Schweser, 2011 2. CFA Program Curriculum Level 1, CFA Institute, 2011 PT IT
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